
McLennan County
A.R.E.S.
by Paul Collins KG5DHS
McLennan County Emergency Coordinator
Hi HOTARC!
Central Texas is currently experiencing intense, triple-digit summer heat, but long-range forecasts from the NOAA Climate
Prediction Center indicate that a looming "Super El Niño" will dramatically reshape the region's weather into a wet, stormy,
and highly volatile fall and winter.
Winter 2026–2027 El Niño Outlook
As the seasons change, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 95% probability of a record-breaking "Super" El
Niño. For Central Texas, this introduces a highly active subtropical jet stream—essentially a multi-lane highway for Pacific
storms:
Wetter-Than-Normal Patterns: NOAA predicts a 40% to 50% higher likelihood of above-average winter rainfall. Central
Texas will likely see frequent, widespread Gulf low-pressure systems bringing heavy rains and occasional thunderstorms.
Drought Relief vs. Flood Risks: This shift provides a high-probability opportunity to recharge parched local aquifers and
reservoirs. However, repeated back-to-back storms will raise the risk of localized flash flooding.
Temperature Swings: While overall average seasonal temperatures may sit close to normal, the region will face extended
periods of dense cloud cover and raw, chilly days.
Wintry Mix Potential: Local meteorologists warn that when rapid Arctic air blasts push south and collide with the intense El
Niño moisture, Central Texas will face an elevated risk of severe winter weather outbreaks, including ice storms, sleet, or
freezing rain.
As always, the ARES team is ready to deploy if needed. Thanks to everyone who is part of the team!
If you are interested in becoming a member of McLennan County ARES, go to the HOTARC Web site under the frequently
asked questions and download the application.
E-mail or mail the completed application according to the instructions listed at the bottom of the application. Your application
will be processed and you will receive an ARES ID Card As always, the ARES team is ready to deploy if needed. Thanks to
everyone who is part of the team!
I'm looking forward to seeing everyone at the meeting.
73, Paul
KG5DHS